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Another FDA failure as Lilly drug causes more deaths

When should the FDA pull a drug off the market? When one person dies from side-effects? How about two or three?

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLN) produce a highly successful diabetes drug called Byetta. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The Food and Drug Administration on Monday said it has received six new reports of patients developing a dangerous form of pancreatitis while taking Byetta."

Two of the patients died.

The drug makers said that the poor results were very rare. The people who got sick probably view it a little differently.

There have been questions for some time about whether the FDA does an effective job of regulating drug companies. The problems with Byetta say that the answer is "no." A drug, which causes even one death, yet stays on the market speaks volumes about how the consumer's interests are cast aside.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Sentiment of U.S. car quality goes negative

One of the few hopes the U.S. car companies have had is that they have been perceived as closing the quality gap with Japanese models. Recent JP Power data shows Detroit running in a dead heat with imports in the consumer satisfaction race.

That bubble has been at least partially burst due to new information from the University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index. According to the AP, "U.S. car buyers are growing less satisfied with their purchases from domestic automakers while their Asian and European competitors continue to improve."

In the new survey, BMW and Lexus tied for the top spot followed by Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota (NYSE: TM). Several brands from GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) dropped down the rankings.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Detroit is in such deep trouble that a perceived drop in the quality of its cars can only make its recovery more difficult. There are several ways around that, but none of them are very palatable.

GM yesterday introduced buyer incentives across most of its brands. That means its margins on those vehicles will be lower. It may pick up some market share, but any victory there will be costly. The U.S. car companies are cutting their marketing budgets, so they cannot "advertise" their way out of the problem.

Effectively giving cars away can certainly help hurdle the quality barrier, but losing a lot more money could sink a large U.S. auto company.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Expert expects a big bank failure -- could it be WB or WM?

Several independent economists have said they expect a big U.S. bank to fail. It may be easy to ignore them because they are not affiliated with any of the large institutions that monitor financial companies. But now the former chief economist of the IMF says one of America's big banks will probably not make it.

According to Reuters, "The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said." Rogoff is currently an economist at Harvard.

The analysis pointing to the bank failure is based on the facts that the credit markets and housing situation will get much worse. Current earnings from banks and brokerage houses indicate that the prediction may well be true.

Continue reading Expert expects a big bank failure -- could it be WB or WM?

Early analyst calls (MA) (HPQ)

Analyst Shaw Wu of American Technology Research said his firm's checks with suppliers indicate some weakness in HP's (NYSE: HPQ) inkjet sales and consumer PCs in the U.S, according to the AP.

UBS downgraded Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Neutral from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news service also writes that Calyon initiated MEMC Electonic (NYSE: WFR) as a "Buy".

Goldman Sachs upgraded Mastercard (NYSE: MA) from "Hold" to "Buy", according to StreetInsider.com.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Closing bell: The beatings will continue; GM, FRE, FNM, SNDK drop big

Investors in shares of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) went wild on speculation today that the government would put new funds into the mortgage agencies and wipe out common shareholders. The market was dragged down over 200 points at some point on a ripple of concerns about the financial sector:

Dow: 11,479.88 -1.54%
NASDAQ 2,416.98 -1.45%
S&P 500: 1,278.71 -1.50%
52-Week Lows

Early in the day, the chance of a hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico pushed oil up and knocked equities down. Once the storm moved over Florida and away from deep-water rigs, oil went back down.

The trading was so bleak and depressing that most traders probably went home to watch the last few events of the Olympics. Those who stayed saw a few notable moves:

Continue reading Closing bell: The beatings will continue; GM, FRE, FNM, SNDK drop big

Google and Motorola to supply Wi-Fi for the masses?

The FCC is looking at using part of the TV signal spectrum to provide wireless high-speed internet. It is a brilliant idea that is being opposed by a large part of the television industry.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "The Federal Communications Commission will have the final say in the battle between the broadcasters -- which fear interference on the airwaves they'll still be using -- and the companies including Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG). and Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) that want to share the television airwaves."

The fight is a classic example of old media not wanting to give up something that it has "owned" for years because it may help new competition.

Tough luck. Broadband adoption in the U.S. is behind several countries in Europe and Asia, and if the FCC can offer an inexpensive solution to that, it should. The new over-the-air system would have many of the benefits of Wi-Fi, but would be more broadly available.

TV broadcasters say that the new technology could interfere with their signals, but testing can demonstrate whether that is true or not. The FCC has the chance to move broadband adoption forward with one spectacular decision. It should not balk at the chance.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

TV still top source of news, but internet gaining

There is a divide along age lines in terms of how people get their news. TV is still in the lead, but that may not last for long.

A Wall Street Journal story looks at the Pew Research Center's biannual survey on news-consumption habits. Pew's most important conclusion of the survey is that it "found that 46% of those polled have a "heavy reliance" on TV for news at all times of the day."

But the median age of the TV loving crowd was 52-years-old. Another group, with a median age of 35, relies primarily on the internet as its news source.

Just as newspapers have faltered as major providers of information, it looks like TV may be seeing its best days. The next generation of people who are moving into their forties and fifties are unlike to migrate to the Tube just because they are aging. Their "internet heavy" habits are likely to stay with them for the balance of their lives.

Over the next decade, major TV network and TV station stocks are likely to be damaged by the trend.

Sell CBS (NYSE: CBS) and buy Google (NYSE: GOOG). Google News taps 4,500 sources and that is going to grow.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Apple iPhone: Undermining an image of perfection

It has been almost two weeks since a Nomura analyst reported the dropped phone calls due to faulty chips were a significant problem for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) 3G iPhone customers.

The mainstream press has been slow in reporting the trouble, but the FT made it a major story today. According to the paper, "Over the past few weeks, customers have flocked to Apple's online support forums to complain about weak or fluctuating signals leading to dropped calls and long download times."

Since the FT prides itself on being early to market with important news, what happened?

The media, in general, seems reluctant to take on Apple's image as an almost flawless designer, manufacturer, and marketer of PCs and consumer electronics devices. The company's customers are vocal defenders of the Apple's blue chip reputation and are rabid about attacking media that try to undermine that.

Apple's obsessive need to present itself as "perfect" is beginning to backfire because of problems with its newest product, the 3G iPhone. It would be better to come clean about the troubles and offer a way to fix them

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Downward move in oil prices still fragile

Oil prices are moving up today because of a hurricane which may hit the Gulf of Mexico. It is a signal that it does not take much to move crude prices, which have fallen from $142 to $115, in the "wrong" direction again.

According to Bloomberg, "Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as a storm near Cuba prompted evacuations from rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of U.S. production. " Any disruption in production brought on by the storm would be short-lived.

The news should remind those who see crude moving toward $100 a barrel that the system of supply and demand is fragile. OPEC is talking about cutting production now that prices have fallen. The conflict between Georgia and Russia could still disrupt the flow of oil from Georgian ports. Nigeria remains an extremely unstable country. Recent reports show that China's GDP is still growing at over 10%. That growth relies heavily on gas and diesel to transport exports to shipping facilities.

The drop in oil prices may drive a certain complacency about gas and heating oil prices. It could undercut the big move is the US toward "energy independence." But that would be a sucker play. There are too many pressure points that will keep oil prices high.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Early analyst calls (HSY) (IM)

Citigroup downgraded Hershey (NYSE:HSY) to Hold from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news services also reports that Bank of America downgraded Ingram Micro (NYSE:IM) to Neutral from Buy.

Robert Half (NYSE:RHI) was cut to Underweight at Lehman, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Comverse Tech (NASDAQ:CMVT) was cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

The most negative economist in the world

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, has recently been profiled in both Barron's and The New York Times. There may be nothing special about his training or methods, but what is fairly unique is his opinion that we are on the brink of a modern version of the Great Depression.

It is hard to say why the media wants to give his analysis voice, but he has become the object of almost endless fascination.

The foundation of his view of the economy is that the current housing disaster will get much, much worse and that banks will end up writing off almost $1.5 trillion in mortgage-related paper. That is about three times what they have taken as charges so far. The New York Times quotes Roubini as saying, "A good third of the regional banks won't make it."

While a number of experts believe that the recession could last a year, Roubini would he called an extremist by most measures. He foresees a downturn lasting 18 months.

The media does not like Roubini because he may be right. They like him because predictions of great economic collapse and mayhem sell papers. That is too bad. The public deserves a more balanced view.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

More calls for breaking up the big banks

The idea that the huge financial services conglomerates should be broken up has been around for a long time. The fact the UBS (NYSE: UBS) is cutting itself into pieces has brought the debate back to the fore.

To some extent taking a company like Citigroup (NYSE: C) and carving it up would allow investors to get shares in some of the good divisions along with the bad. At that point, at least shareholders could decide what they wanted to hold. The original idea behind merging bank pieces together was that if one segment of the business got in trouble, others could do well. Earning would be supported through diversity. Recent quarterly statements have shown that theory holds little water.

According to the AP, "Ladenburg Thalmann's Richard X. Bove, one of the most outspoken banking analysts since the credit crisis began last year, wrote in a note that the 'concept behind the creation of JPMorgan Chase has broken down.'" Bove's view is not longer part of a tiny minority.

The trouble with the thinking is that it is hard to see how it would work in practice. Can Citi simply be split into four or five pieces, each with its won management and fate? It worked for AT&T 30 years ago, and investors were the better for it. Perhaps it is the banking industry's turn.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Toyota to be the king of green -- too late

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) says that a hybrid version of every one of its vehicles will be available by 2020.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "The announcement came as all of the auto makers at an industry conference this week in northern Michigan maneuvered to carve out their own niches in fuel-efficient design."

But, 12 years from now, hybrids may be useless.

Nuclear energy may drive 100% of the U.S. needs for electric power.

The massive oil reserves found off Brazil and in the Arctic may have driven up oil supplies so that gas is back to $1.25.

Wind power may have undercut the need for oil-heat in many American homes.

Solar power will probably have replaced other fuels for furnishing most homes and small businesses with energy.

The hybrid car may not be such a great idea.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Discount brokers may be caught up in auction-rate scandal

It turns out that Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and TDAmeritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) may have sold auction-rate securities by using misleading marketing about whether or not the instruments were "cash equivalents." According to The New York Times, the "point of sale" activity at the discount and retail brokerages is similar, they said, and some of the discount brokerage firms use financial advisers or may have improperly listed information on their websites.

Schwab argues that it was only an "agent" and did not slant the marketing of auction-rates one way or the other.

It is safe to predict that Andrew Cuomo, the New York State Attorney General, will get discount brokerage firms to buy the auction-rate paper back from their customers. Cuomo can probably find some marketing material where the nature of the securities was represented the wrong way.

But, Cuomo's actions have stepped over the line. In all probability, many discount brokerage customers bought the auction-rates on their PC without seeing any information about whether their liquidity could be undermined. Discount brokerage customer often do their own research.

Cuomo won't care. He won't try to find out which people got their auction-rates without being attracted to them by marketing. He will get the discount firms to buy all of the paper back. The companies do not want years of litigation.

Cuomo is running for governor, or perhaps the U.S. Senate. He does not have time to pause for such details.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Pickens sticks with alternative energy plan despite headwinds

T. Boone Pickens does not care if the price of oil is falling. His opinion is that most of the drop is over and that his plan for wind energy is still viable and necessary for future U.S. independence from crude imports.

Pickens could not be described as faint-hearted. Rumors are that his $7 billion BP Capital hedge fund took a 35% haircut in July by betting the wrong way on oil and gas. It is a paper loss, but must sting nonetheless.

Some argue that Pickens is old and monumentally rich so gambles on wind and oil don't mean much for his own fortune. That could indicate that his conviction about wind-powered energy is not based on greed. Since he has spent his life aggressively accumulating wealth, that is not likely.

What is likely is that he thinks oil prices may stay very high and that his alternative energy will do remarkably well because it is infinitely renewable. If so, it is too bad his hedge fund cannot invest a few billions into wind technology. He can't afford another 35% loss. At some point his convictions may put him in the poor house. At least as it would be viewed by a billionaire.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

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Last updated: August 19, 2008: 10:58 PM

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